The price of oil has shot up to around $115 per barrel on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and general inflationary effects occurring in the global economy. Oil stocks have been great performers, but a lot of them have already run heavily with high oil prices baked in to near-term financial expectations. There are a few undiscovered and undervalued gems remaining and that's where we think the big money can still be made. One such company is First Helium Inc. (FHELF) (HELI.V) which announced a highly profitable light oil discovery today, building on prior discoveries. We are up to 990 followers on our ValueTrades blog despite not giving out a lot of alerts, a fact that we think is indicative of a successful, diligent and prudent stock picking history. If you like our picks you can also follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 79 followers so far on here. You can also follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.
From today's press release:
Significant Additional Production Revenue Anticipated in Q2/2022
CALGARY, AB, March 23, 2022 /CNW/ - First Helium Inc. ("First Helium" or the "Company") (TSXV: HELI) (OTC: FHELF) (FRA: 2MC), today announced that it has drilled, completed and tested the Company's second exploration well on the Company's Worsley Property (the "4-29"). Upon completion of well operations, the 4-29 well flowed 467 barrels per day ("bbl/d") of ~35 -degree API light oil from the Leduc Formation, representing an oil cut of 67% over a test period of 48 hours on a minimal drawdown. First Helium is preparing to bring the 4-29 well into production in early Q2 2022.
Preparations are underway to perform a minor expansion at the Company's existing oil facility to put the 4-29 well into production, with first cash flow expected by mid-second quarter of 2022;
Oil production from the well will be transported by truck to select receipt terminals and marketed via third-party marketing agreements; and
Cash flow from the well will be deployed to accelerate the exploration and development of helium gas over the Company's 79,000 acres of land along the Worsley Trend as well as cover ongoing corporate costs.
Management Commentary
Ed Bereznicki, President & CEO of First Helium stated, "We are extremely pleased with the performance of our second discovery well, the 4-29. Given current commodity pricing of approximately WTI US$85 to US$90 per barrel, and our estimated field netbacks of CA$82 to CA$88 per barrel, we expect the well to pay out in approximately 4-6 months." Mr. Bereznicki added, "Based on the current implied production trading multiples for Canadian light oil producers, this well represents a significant potential increase in asset value for First Helium shareholders. Capturing the aggregate value of this exceptional exploration success, along with potential development locations will enhance the Company's ability to deliver on its key strategic objective of exploring for and developing helium production in the Worsley Trend."
David Safton, Vice President, Geoscience commented, "The results of the 4-29 well provide additional confirmation of our geologic model over the prolific Worsley Trend and bolsters our confidence in our exploration strategy for the region. Our estimate that approximately 20% of Leduc wells along the Worsley Trend present as oil wells, and 80% as gas wells with a high probability of potential helium content, highlights the Worsley Trend as a very attractive helium exploration area."
4-29 Highlights
Drilled based on a detailed 3D seismic evaluation, the 4-29 confirms the Company's geologic model over the area; based on the Company's assessment of economic Leduc wells along the Worsley Trend, approximately 20% have been light oil producers, the balance have been natural gas producers. Key features of the 4-29 include:
Production tested at 467 barrels per day of ~35-degree API light oil, flowed over a period of 48 hours, representing an oil component of 67%, and a water component of 33% following recovery of completion fluids, with minimal drawdown;
At a total drill and complete cost of approximately CA$2.2 million, production test results for the 4-29 suggest that it is an exceptional vertical oil well in the WCSB;
The 4-29 will provide the Company with flexibility in securing funding to continue with its primary strategic objective which is to explore and develop its landholdings on the helium rich Worsley Trend; and
The Company intends to engage its independent reserve engineering consultant to evaluate the 4-29, along with the Company's first discovery, the 1-30 well, for inclusion in year-end corporate contingent resource and reserve estimates in accordance with 51-101 guidelines. This would include an independent estimate of the net present value of the reserves associated with the 4-29 and 1-30 wells, respectively.
Next Steps
Based on a further evaluation of these exploration results, First Helium will be confirming its drilling program at Worsley for Q2 and Q3 2022, which will include:
Prioritizing its drill prospect inventory for helium, favoring locations which may also provide exposure to the potential for light oil accumulations;
Selecting its next helium drill location and commencing drilling in late Q2 or early Q3 2022;
Evaluating a number of lower cost well bore re-entries on the existing Worsley land base; and
Evaluating further potential light oil development locations in the vicinity of both the 4-29 and 1-30 wells in connection with exploring alternatives to monetize their collective asset value.
Over Q2 and Q3 2022, the Company will evaluate alternatives for monetizing the intrinsic asset value of both 4-29 and 1-30 to further its strategic helium exploration and development objectives. This may include entering into hedging arrangements to guarantee predictable levels of cash flow for ongoing project development and the possible underpinning of helium gas processing facility financing alternatives.
This 467 barrels of oil per day figure adds to the company's 1-30 oil well currently in production. That well produces 430 barrels per day and the company expects to receive $1.2 million CAD in late March for February's production. As the 4-29 discovery is expected to come online by mid-2022, this monthly revenue can be expected to double. At an estimated $85 per barrel netback, the 4-29 discovery has a payback period of only four to six months. The 1-30 well had a payback period of less than two months.
This added cash flow will enable the company to aggressively drill for helium as well as additional oil targets. This is where investors can win in two ways. First, the cash flow generated from these two discoveries post-payback period will be around $2.5 million CAD per month, or $30 million CAD per year. At $0.58, the entire market cap for HELI is $38 million. This is a significant undervaluation compared to other Canadian light oil producers. Second, with the increased cash flow enabling aggressive drilling, the company should increase on added hype and news of more discoveries.
The HELI team is obviously very effective at finding and developing resource discoveries on an active property. There are approximately 66 million shares outstanding and 100 million fully diluted after exercise of all warrants and options. We think this stock has a fair value of $2.00 CAD, resulting in a market cap of $200 million. This would be 6.6x of cash flows from the two current discoveries while giving no value to any future discoveries. After all, this company is called First HELIUM, not First Oil. The company already has a 3-4x upside before we even start talking about helium.
Disclosure: We are long HELI.V
