While the Coronavirus outbreak has been a tragedy for the markets and life in general, it has opened up an opportunity for very profitable trades. Small cap companies that were headed nowhere now have a shot of life as they try to use their technology or manufacturing capacity to help the health care system deal with COVID-19 or at least have the appearance of doing so for a pump. In that case it is often difficult for the retail trader to find which companies will be true winners versus which ones are just in it for a temporary pop and capital raise. A great example of that is iBio (IBIO). While people were chasing that stock above $2.00, we told our readers to look for plays on the TSX Venture since that exchange always trails the trends in the United States and a lot of money can pour in quickly once a trend has been identified.
On February 27, we issued an alert on Vaxil Bio (VXL.V) (VXLLF) as the next big Coronavirus play hidden on the TSX Venture. Since then, VXL has risen to $0.165 from $0.08 and hit as high as $0.34 in the days following our alert. On March 13, we issued an alert on Lattice Biologics Ltd. (LBL.V) (LBLTF) at $0.05. It rose as high as $0.21 in the days following our alert and sits at $0.105 now. We are up to 869 followers on our ValueTrades blog despite not giving out a lot of alerts, a fact that we think is indicative of a successful, diligent and prudent stock picking history. If you like our picks you can also follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. You can follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 4,000 followers and our new StockTwits account @ValueTradesNNR.
To us, the small cap vaccine play has run its course. These small companies are not going to realistically compete with multi-billion dollar pharma companies in finding a vaccine. Also, most of the easy money has already been made on test makers like Co-Diagnostics (CODX) and Aytu BioScience (AYTU). They will get market share since there is an incredible shortage of tests but they are also competing with a lot of other companies and each test per person only brings in a few dollars of revenue.
The real money to be made right now on Coronavirus plays is on ventilators. Like tests, ventilators are in high demand and in short supply. But ventilators stand out from test kits and vaccines in that companies like Roche don't make them and can't take up a lot of the market share. Manufacturing companies that have been beaten down since the outbreak because they have been forced to close up shop are now able to open back up after retooling. One such company that we believe will be making a big move is BIOLASE (BIOL). It rose 233% on over 80 million shares traded on Wednesday, but pulled back to close at $0.62 on Thursday, giving us a chance to load up more at a great price.
BIOL announced an agreement with MEK-ICS CO., Ltd (058110.KQ), a Korean ventilator maker. BIOL will manufacture MEK-ICS' MTV-1000 ICU-grade portable ventilator in California. This represents the first time that MEK-ICS has entered into the United States market. BIOL disclosed that over $10 million in orders have been received, with the expectation that this will double in the next few weeks.
The FDA granted emergency use authorization to five companies including MEK-ICS to produce ventilators this past week. The largest company in that exclusive list is Medtronic (MDT), and it is selling its ventilators for an average of $10,000 each. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services signed a $646.7 million deal with Royal Philips N.V. to provide ventilators at $15,000 each. MEK-ICS' MTV-1000 ventilator sells for 600,000 Rupees in India. This translates to approximately $8,000 USD. Judging by the going rate of ventilators right now, our estimate would be that the MTV-1000 will have a $10,000 USD price tag. MEK-ICS has approximately a 55-60% cost of sales on its gross revenue. Meaning if the ventilators sell for $10,000 and have an average gross margin, $5,500-$6,000 goes to raw materials and manufacturing.
It is unclear in the press release if the $10 million in orders BIOL is referring to is for the ventilators or for BIOL's work order on the ventilators. If it's the former, it would receive only a portion of the $10 million as per its manufacturing agreement with MEK-ICS. If it's the latter, the full $10 million in recorded as revenue and the total purchase order for the ventilators is something larger than $10 million. If each ventilator costs $10,000, a $10 million order would imply just 1,000 units were ordered which is a drop in the bucket in the former scenario. If BIOL makes $5,000 for every ventilator it produces, a $10 million order would imply 2,000 units were ordered in the latter scenario. This makes a little more sense so we are going to assume the $10 million and any subsequent announcement of a purchase order equates to revenue for the company.
If we can reasonably estimate revenue of $5,000 for BIOL per ventilator manufactured based on MEK-ICS' cost of goods sold and price of the MTV-1000, the next challenge would be determining manufacturing capacity. BIOL implies that it will get at least $20 million in revenue in the near term from ventilator production in the press release. But the reality is that its only constraint is its manufacturing capacity. According to a Vox article, there are currently 170,000 ventilators in the United States with an estimated 960,000 people needing them over the course of the outbreak. If one ventilator can serve an average of 2.5 people over that timespan, there would be a shortage of 200,000 ventilators in the United States and hundreds of thousands across the globe. As in other words, if you build a working ventilator, you can sell it.
MDT is planning to produce more than 25,000 ventilators in the next six months in response to the increased demand. It will start by shipping 400 per week in April and ramp that up to 1,000 per week in June out of its available manufacturing capacity. BIOL is obviously nowhere near the size of MDT. But with the recent shutdown it is willing and able to use 100% of its manufacturing capacity to build ventilators. It appears to us based on research that companies of BIOL's size would be able to produce 100-500 ventilators a week. If BIOL is able to ramp up to an average production of 200 ventilators a week and get paid $5,000 for each of them, 2,600 produced each quarter leads to a quarterly revenue run rate of $13 million.
There is no sugar coating BIOL's existing business in the dental industry prior to the outbreak. It hasn't been able to pull a profit and there has been very high turnover in management over the past few years. Though new CEO Todd Norbe has only been leading for a year and is trying to right the ship. The only thing noteworthy about BIOL's business is that because of its position as a medical device manufacturer, it managed to get FDA clearance to produce ventilators and has years of experience in manufacturing medical equipment in the United States, a determining factor for MEK-ICS deciding to team with the company in its first attempt to serve the U.S. market.
The forced shut down of BIOL's business was actually a good thing. Now it has been forced to retool in order to make ventilators which it will inherently have to do it at a profit. The government cannot coerce companies to come back online in order to make ventilators at a loss. They will either make an operating profit or get a grant from the government to ensure positive cash flow. BIOL will also benefit from not having to pay commissions to sales people for a dental business that is currently on hiatus.
Despite the move in the stock price this week, BIOL's close at $0.62 on Thursday was actually LOWER than its stock price at the beginning of March when it was trading at around $0.75 before COVID-19 forced it to shut down. BIOL sits barely above the capital raise it did back in October at $0.575. So the drop in stock price has had nothing to do with cheap paper hitting the market. It is all based on real challenges BIOL faced prior to the deal with MEK-ICS.
Putting this into perspective, BIOL is trading lower now than it did with a money losing dental business that achieved $38 million in gross revenue in 2019. Even though ventilators are in high demand and will be built profitably. And there is a good chance that BIOL can exceed the $38 million in annual revenue since it is confident it can get at least $20 million in total orders over the next few weeks.
In contract, MEK-ICS' 058110 listing on the KOSDAQ has increased about five times from around 5,000 Korean Won at the beginning of March to 24,350 Won today. Its 130 billion Won market cap translates to a little over $100 million USD. It has a price to sales ratio of 10x. Though it is likely to grow into that ratio through substantial revenue growth for 2020 as its ventilators will be in high demand.
Assuming a revenue multiple of 5x - half of MEKICS - on BIOL's already contracted $10 million, that would lead to a $50 million market cap. With 31.6 million shares outstanding, that's $1.58 per share. We think that a minimum of $25 million in ventilator orders is achievable for this year based on manufacturing capacity and cost per unit estimates along with limitless demand for ventilators. If the company was valued at a 5x revenue multiple that would lead to a $125 million market cap or about $4.00 per share. A $4.00 stock price would lead to more than a 500% return. We are not alone in this analysis. Dougherty has a $3.50 target on BIOL.
If BIOL beats our estimates and continues to sign more ventilator deals well in excess of $25 million, this just means the stock price target should be up even more. Even if someone thinks that a stock price of $4.00 is unachievable, they have to admit that a market cap of just under $20 million with a stock price of $0.62 is stupid cheap when $20 million of ventilator orders are coming. $1.00 should be a slam dunk even without more news so people can buy and sell at any time between now and then. As long the continued development of the virus and the need for ventilators stays at top of mind for investors, health care workers, politicians and society at large.
There are three reasons why BIOL may have had some selling pressure on Thursday. First, retail traders and shorts are yelling at the top of their lungs about a secondary offering. Given BIOL's new found cash cow, it seems less likely that a raise would occur now. Though it is a risk given reason number two. BIOL is in deficiency with NASDAQ listing rules such as minimum price and minimum shareholder's equity requirements. The company has some time to rectify both situations given its ventilator business so we think that this is just noise. Finally, as the market has gone up and people foolishly chase airline and cruise ship stocks, a lot of the COVID-19 plays have been coming down. Both Allied Healthcare Products (AHPI) and Alpha Pro Tech (APT) dropped on Thursday even though we all know the demand for masks and ventilators aren't going to go anywhere. We think the next time Trump finally has to admit that business is not ready to be opened will be the time when Coronavirus stocks skyrocket again and the general market drops. We took the opportunity to buy more BIOL in the $0.60's on Thursday after initiating a buy at the same price on Wednesday.
Disclosure: We are long BIOL
What's next for microcap stocks? TradeMiner identifies seasonal trends and market cycles, the Penny Stock Prophet and Microcap Millionaires finds the next big small cap plays in various industries while Addicted to Profits makes trades from a Canadian perspective.
There are also some good books available on microcap stocks and day trading such as:
Mastering Microcaps: Strategies, Trends, and Stock Selection (Bloomberg Professional Library)
The Little Black Book of Microcap Investing: Beat the Market with NASDAQ/AMEX Microcap Stocks, OTCBB Penny Stocks, and Pink Sheet Stocks
Microcap Magic: Why The Biggest Returns Are In Stocks You've Never Heard Of
How to Day Trade for a Living: A Beginner’s Guide to Trading Tools and Tactics, Money Management, Discipline and Trading Psychology
How to Day Trade: A Detailed Guide to Day Trading Strategies, Risk Management, and Trader Psychology
A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online (2nd edition)
Stock Investing for Beginners: Marijuana Stocks
Here are some other good stock market resources. This includes technical analysis and day trading, dividend stock investing, gold and commodities, sector rotation, options trading and microcap trading strategies:
The dividend stock report from dividendstocksonline.com
On February 27, we issued an alert on Vaxil Bio (VXL.V) (VXLLF) as the next big Coronavirus play hidden on the TSX Venture. Since then, VXL has risen to $0.165 from $0.08 and hit as high as $0.34 in the days following our alert. On March 13, we issued an alert on Lattice Biologics Ltd. (LBL.V) (LBLTF) at $0.05. It rose as high as $0.21 in the days following our alert and sits at $0.105 now. We are up to 869 followers on our ValueTrades blog despite not giving out a lot of alerts, a fact that we think is indicative of a successful, diligent and prudent stock picking history. If you like our picks you can also follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. You can follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 4,000 followers and our new StockTwits account @ValueTradesNNR.
To us, the small cap vaccine play has run its course. These small companies are not going to realistically compete with multi-billion dollar pharma companies in finding a vaccine. Also, most of the easy money has already been made on test makers like Co-Diagnostics (CODX) and Aytu BioScience (AYTU). They will get market share since there is an incredible shortage of tests but they are also competing with a lot of other companies and each test per person only brings in a few dollars of revenue.
The real money to be made right now on Coronavirus plays is on ventilators. Like tests, ventilators are in high demand and in short supply. But ventilators stand out from test kits and vaccines in that companies like Roche don't make them and can't take up a lot of the market share. Manufacturing companies that have been beaten down since the outbreak because they have been forced to close up shop are now able to open back up after retooling. One such company that we believe will be making a big move is BIOLASE (BIOL). It rose 233% on over 80 million shares traded on Wednesday, but pulled back to close at $0.62 on Thursday, giving us a chance to load up more at a great price.
BIOL announced an agreement with MEK-ICS CO., Ltd (058110.KQ), a Korean ventilator maker. BIOL will manufacture MEK-ICS' MTV-1000 ICU-grade portable ventilator in California. This represents the first time that MEK-ICS has entered into the United States market. BIOL disclosed that over $10 million in orders have been received, with the expectation that this will double in the next few weeks.
The FDA granted emergency use authorization to five companies including MEK-ICS to produce ventilators this past week. The largest company in that exclusive list is Medtronic (MDT), and it is selling its ventilators for an average of $10,000 each. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services signed a $646.7 million deal with Royal Philips N.V. to provide ventilators at $15,000 each. MEK-ICS' MTV-1000 ventilator sells for 600,000 Rupees in India. This translates to approximately $8,000 USD. Judging by the going rate of ventilators right now, our estimate would be that the MTV-1000 will have a $10,000 USD price tag. MEK-ICS has approximately a 55-60% cost of sales on its gross revenue. Meaning if the ventilators sell for $10,000 and have an average gross margin, $5,500-$6,000 goes to raw materials and manufacturing.
It is unclear in the press release if the $10 million in orders BIOL is referring to is for the ventilators or for BIOL's work order on the ventilators. If it's the former, it would receive only a portion of the $10 million as per its manufacturing agreement with MEK-ICS. If it's the latter, the full $10 million in recorded as revenue and the total purchase order for the ventilators is something larger than $10 million. If each ventilator costs $10,000, a $10 million order would imply just 1,000 units were ordered which is a drop in the bucket in the former scenario. If BIOL makes $5,000 for every ventilator it produces, a $10 million order would imply 2,000 units were ordered in the latter scenario. This makes a little more sense so we are going to assume the $10 million and any subsequent announcement of a purchase order equates to revenue for the company.
If we can reasonably estimate revenue of $5,000 for BIOL per ventilator manufactured based on MEK-ICS' cost of goods sold and price of the MTV-1000, the next challenge would be determining manufacturing capacity. BIOL implies that it will get at least $20 million in revenue in the near term from ventilator production in the press release. But the reality is that its only constraint is its manufacturing capacity. According to a Vox article, there are currently 170,000 ventilators in the United States with an estimated 960,000 people needing them over the course of the outbreak. If one ventilator can serve an average of 2.5 people over that timespan, there would be a shortage of 200,000 ventilators in the United States and hundreds of thousands across the globe. As in other words, if you build a working ventilator, you can sell it.
MDT is planning to produce more than 25,000 ventilators in the next six months in response to the increased demand. It will start by shipping 400 per week in April and ramp that up to 1,000 per week in June out of its available manufacturing capacity. BIOL is obviously nowhere near the size of MDT. But with the recent shutdown it is willing and able to use 100% of its manufacturing capacity to build ventilators. It appears to us based on research that companies of BIOL's size would be able to produce 100-500 ventilators a week. If BIOL is able to ramp up to an average production of 200 ventilators a week and get paid $5,000 for each of them, 2,600 produced each quarter leads to a quarterly revenue run rate of $13 million.
There is no sugar coating BIOL's existing business in the dental industry prior to the outbreak. It hasn't been able to pull a profit and there has been very high turnover in management over the past few years. Though new CEO Todd Norbe has only been leading for a year and is trying to right the ship. The only thing noteworthy about BIOL's business is that because of its position as a medical device manufacturer, it managed to get FDA clearance to produce ventilators and has years of experience in manufacturing medical equipment in the United States, a determining factor for MEK-ICS deciding to team with the company in its first attempt to serve the U.S. market.
The forced shut down of BIOL's business was actually a good thing. Now it has been forced to retool in order to make ventilators which it will inherently have to do it at a profit. The government cannot coerce companies to come back online in order to make ventilators at a loss. They will either make an operating profit or get a grant from the government to ensure positive cash flow. BIOL will also benefit from not having to pay commissions to sales people for a dental business that is currently on hiatus.
Despite the move in the stock price this week, BIOL's close at $0.62 on Thursday was actually LOWER than its stock price at the beginning of March when it was trading at around $0.75 before COVID-19 forced it to shut down. BIOL sits barely above the capital raise it did back in October at $0.575. So the drop in stock price has had nothing to do with cheap paper hitting the market. It is all based on real challenges BIOL faced prior to the deal with MEK-ICS.
Putting this into perspective, BIOL is trading lower now than it did with a money losing dental business that achieved $38 million in gross revenue in 2019. Even though ventilators are in high demand and will be built profitably. And there is a good chance that BIOL can exceed the $38 million in annual revenue since it is confident it can get at least $20 million in total orders over the next few weeks.
In contract, MEK-ICS' 058110 listing on the KOSDAQ has increased about five times from around 5,000 Korean Won at the beginning of March to 24,350 Won today. Its 130 billion Won market cap translates to a little over $100 million USD. It has a price to sales ratio of 10x. Though it is likely to grow into that ratio through substantial revenue growth for 2020 as its ventilators will be in high demand.
Assuming a revenue multiple of 5x - half of MEKICS - on BIOL's already contracted $10 million, that would lead to a $50 million market cap. With 31.6 million shares outstanding, that's $1.58 per share. We think that a minimum of $25 million in ventilator orders is achievable for this year based on manufacturing capacity and cost per unit estimates along with limitless demand for ventilators. If the company was valued at a 5x revenue multiple that would lead to a $125 million market cap or about $4.00 per share. A $4.00 stock price would lead to more than a 500% return. We are not alone in this analysis. Dougherty has a $3.50 target on BIOL.
If BIOL beats our estimates and continues to sign more ventilator deals well in excess of $25 million, this just means the stock price target should be up even more. Even if someone thinks that a stock price of $4.00 is unachievable, they have to admit that a market cap of just under $20 million with a stock price of $0.62 is stupid cheap when $20 million of ventilator orders are coming. $1.00 should be a slam dunk even without more news so people can buy and sell at any time between now and then. As long the continued development of the virus and the need for ventilators stays at top of mind for investors, health care workers, politicians and society at large.
There are three reasons why BIOL may have had some selling pressure on Thursday. First, retail traders and shorts are yelling at the top of their lungs about a secondary offering. Given BIOL's new found cash cow, it seems less likely that a raise would occur now. Though it is a risk given reason number two. BIOL is in deficiency with NASDAQ listing rules such as minimum price and minimum shareholder's equity requirements. The company has some time to rectify both situations given its ventilator business so we think that this is just noise. Finally, as the market has gone up and people foolishly chase airline and cruise ship stocks, a lot of the COVID-19 plays have been coming down. Both Allied Healthcare Products (AHPI) and Alpha Pro Tech (APT) dropped on Thursday even though we all know the demand for masks and ventilators aren't going to go anywhere. We think the next time Trump finally has to admit that business is not ready to be opened will be the time when Coronavirus stocks skyrocket again and the general market drops. We took the opportunity to buy more BIOL in the $0.60's on Thursday after initiating a buy at the same price on Wednesday.
Disclosure: We are long BIOL
What's next for microcap stocks? TradeMiner identifies seasonal trends and market cycles, the Penny Stock Prophet and Microcap Millionaires finds the next big small cap plays in various industries while Addicted to Profits makes trades from a Canadian perspective.
There are also some good books available on microcap stocks and day trading such as:
Mastering Microcaps: Strategies, Trends, and Stock Selection (Bloomberg Professional Library)
The Little Black Book of Microcap Investing: Beat the Market with NASDAQ/AMEX Microcap Stocks, OTCBB Penny Stocks, and Pink Sheet Stocks
Microcap Magic: Why The Biggest Returns Are In Stocks You've Never Heard Of
How to Day Trade for a Living: A Beginner’s Guide to Trading Tools and Tactics, Money Management, Discipline and Trading Psychology
How to Day Trade: A Detailed Guide to Day Trading Strategies, Risk Management, and Trader Psychology
A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online (2nd edition)
Stock Investing for Beginners: Marijuana Stocks
Here are some other good stock market resources. This includes technical analysis and day trading, dividend stock investing, gold and commodities, sector rotation, options trading and microcap trading strategies:
The dividend stock report from dividendstocksonline.com
The dividend stock report from Dividend Stocks Rock
Goldmasterinvesting.com Ocean Of Gold Report for the top 15 gold mining companies
Trader Review
The Trader's Academy Club
The Wealth Builder's Club from beatthemarketanalyzer.com
MyBB: A Forum For Investors and Traders
Spartan Trader Forex Academy Live Daily Trading Room
And try the Z Code System if you're looking for other ways to make money systematically outside of the stock market.
Goldmasterinvesting.com Ocean Of Gold Report for the top 15 gold mining companies
Trader Review
The Trader's Academy Club
The Wealth Builder's Club from beatthemarketanalyzer.com
MyBB: A Forum For Investors and Traders
Spartan Trader Forex Academy Live Daily Trading Room
And try the Z Code System if you're looking for other ways to make money systematically outside of the stock market.
For those who are interested in trading bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, here are some links to valuable reports and strategies:
