Friday, 10 February 2017

Up Over 100% Since Our Call On KBSF Yesterday Morning And We Continue To Hold

We are up over 100% on our call on KBS Fashion Group Limited (KBSF) from yesterday morning at $3 and will continue to hold. For those who followed us and read the report and got in early yesterday, they are also enjoying quite the ride. If you want to get notified of our reports as soon as they come out, make sure to follow our blog by clicking the follow button on the left hand panel. Yesterday morning we had 83 followers. Now we have 92. Likely from another 9 smart people who are enjoying a big win today.

The spike in KBSF smells like the start of an ETRM type of run which ran from $2 to as high as $30 from January 4th to January 10th. What makes KBSF so special is that it has the fundamental value to support a share price of $15 to $30.

How is KBSF worth $15 to $30?

We can start off by looking at the Q2 results and audited 2015 20-F. Links to these filings are here:

Q2 results filed with the SEC November 7, 2016

Audited 20-F filed May 2, 2016

Something we would like to note is that KBSF changed its auditor from BDO to WWC in 2015 (do a CRTL-F search on the 20-F for the terms WWC and BDO if you want to read all about it). Why did the company do this? Because Ms. Lixia Tu was hired as the company's CFO in 2015 and she worked at BDO previously. The company switched auditors so as to not have any appearance of a conflict of interest. Now that shorts are foolishly betting against the stock, they will try to reach for things like an auditor switch as a sign of potential foul play. Rest assured that this is not at all the case with KBSF. In fact, it's the opposite. The company took a proactive approach in cutting ties with BDO because it hired one of BDO's former employees. This should give shareholders extra assurance that KBSF's CFO has experience with a respected global auditing firm such as BDO.

Why do we care so much about the audit? Because that will prove that the $21.2 million in cash as of December 31, 2015 is an accurate balance. And if the company has a history of reporting trustworthy financials, the results ending June is likely quite trustworthy as well, particularly a very transparent line item such as cash. Here is a summary of the important line items on the balance sheet, the Jun-Dec variance and the per share amount of June balances based on the new shares outstanding of 1.77 million:

Cash per share is $14.61. That's $14.61. KBSF has more than doubled from our call at $3, but is still trading at a 50% discount to cash. It has 100% upside just to get to its cash value, ignoring all of the other assets on the balance sheet.

Total current assets per share, which is very liquid with cash and A/R comprising the bulk of it, is $35.33. The A/R balance is high, but notice that it fell nearly $4 million in the six month period and cash grew over $4 million. The company is slowly collecting on the balances that are owed and converting that to cash.

Total liabilities is $4.52. That means working capital, which is current assets less liabilities is $30.80. Just to get to a fair net liquidation value, KBSF is due to rise another 300% to over $30.

We haven't even gotten into the total net equity which adds another $25 per share to the equation from long-term assets such as property and leases, two very vital types of assets for a branded retail line like KBS Fashion, but at this juncture what's the point? The company is very clearly undervalued at $7. Trading at 50% discount to cash. Whether it's worth $30 or $55 is an argument to debate once it gets to those prices.

Something we would like to point out is that KBSF was once trading over $10 in 2014, or over $150 per share split-adjusted (use Google Finance to get an accurate split-adjusted history). So the company wasn't always trading at such a deep discount. It just got sold off by investors because revenue was declining as KBSF was looking to exit its corporate store business. Now that this pivot is over, the company looks to be back on track for growth. In our piece from yesterday, we made mention of the CEO comments on Q3 and Q4 expectations. Here it is again (check the Q2 SEC filing to verify it yourself):

"With these advantages, we also expanded our sales department by employing international sales staff. So we expect our revenue to grow in the second half of 2016 and we believe we are on track to deliver profits in excess of $3 million for 2016, excluding the provision of the change in fair value of warrants and our non-recurring fees related to our recent transactions."

The CEO believes that KBSF will be on track to have at least $3 million profits in 2016. That is $1.69 per share EPS. So not only is KBSF trading at a discount to its cash, an EPS multiple of 10 implies a stock price of $17. Adding together the per share cash value to the price implied by the P/E ratio to come up with a fair enterprise value metric and you would once again get a fair value stock price of over $30. KBSF is set to run further now that this undervalued gem finally has enough eyeballs on it. For anyone stupid enough to short this extreme value play, we need you in order to ignite a short squeeze. So thank you.

**We erroneously stated that EPS was $2.56 yesterday, not $1.69. But at this juncture it doesn't really matter if EPS is $2.56 or $1.69, the point is the company is highly undervalued. 

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