Thursday, 9 February 2017

KBSF: Undervalued Microcap Set For Post-RS Run Like DRYS, ETRM or IPDN

Before we get into this report, we encourage you to follow our blog by clicking on the follow button at the top of the left hand panel if you like our stuff and want to be alerted on our next picks as soon as possible. At the time of this writing we have 83 followers. They get an alert on our reports first. We think this pick will be an absolute monster, a potential 500-1000% gainer for those who get in and out at the right time, and likely a double or more for most other early investors. While that might sound like pump and dump talk, read the rest of this report and you will see it is based on reasoned financial analysis and analysis of peers that made big moves in the market. This pick is for free and it only takes a few minutes to read. If you are interested in subscription services we have links to a few at the bottom of this report. Look at our 2016 year in review to see that the bulk of out picks made our readers money last year.

We have talked about KBS Fashion Group Limited (KBSF) before, wondering if it was the most undervalued stock on the market. Despite that, the stock has sunk to a low of $0.19 on February 8 just prior to a reverse split set to take effect February 9. The 1-for-15 split will cause the float to shrink from 26.5 million to 1.77 million. Two months ago the stock was trading at $0.40 and was undervalued back then.

Reverse splits on stocks like DryShips Inc. (DRYS), EnteroMedics Inc. (ETRM), Signal Genetics, Inc. (SGNL), Interpace Diagnostics Group, Inc. (IDXG), Real Goods Solar, Inc. (RGSE), Globus Maritime Limited (GLBS), SAExploration Holdings, Inc. (SAEX), among others, where the float has been reduced to just a couple million shares, have caused some incredibly violent swings and short squeezes over the past couple of months, sometimes on the order of 1000% or more in a few days.

What makes KBSF stand out from these other stocks? 

KBSF actually has financials to sustain it so it is not at risk of a rally-killing financing like those other stocks have been. Have a look at the Q2 results filed with the SEC on November 7. The company has $25.9 million in cash. That is $14.61 per share in cash.

The first thing you might think is ok, well they must be depleting cash at an alarming rate or have a lot of debt. No. The cash balance has increased by $4.7 million since December 2015. The company attributes the increase in cash as being "mainly due to the collection of account receivable and the profit of the past year". Total liabilities are only $8 million against current assets of $62.5 million for a working capital of $54.5 million or over $30 per share. As of February 8, KBSF is trading at merely 10% of its net liquid assets. That's not even accounting for the $45 million in long-term assets.

On the income statement side of things, it's a little bit of a mixed bag. However, if the company didn't have any bad news over the past year, how could it possibly get so cheap in the first place? The bad news is that KBSF has had declining revenue as it seeks a pivot in its business. EPS is $0.02 for the first six months of 2016 versus $0.07 for the same period in 2015. Still, the company is profitable even with this decline in revenue. Taking into account the 1-for-15 split, EPS is $0.30 for the first six months of the year. KBSF management has been smart to cut costs alongside revenue declines so that the company still shows black ink even in tougher times like these. That's a sign of a competent management team being proactive with hard choices.

KBSF's CEO has explained the revenue decline as such:

"Mr. Keyan Yan, Chairman and CEO of the Company commented, because our clients order most of their spring and summer collections in the first quarter of year 2016, the second quarter of the year is considered a slow season of our industry, so the performance of second quarter has decreased as compared the same period of last year. We have also closed some corporate stores in year 2015 and made an effort to access the new and faster growing smaller regional cities instead of the larger cities, as well as efforts on sales to online shop and multi-brand stores. We expect to have a better performance in the third quarter of year 2016.

Starting in 2015 we have also developed a new channel of sales involving wholesale to online shop and multi-brands stores, and we have made progress on this part of our sales strategy starting from the first quarter of year 2016. We have spent considerable time to demonstrate our products on some of the internet platforms as well as setting up international sales group. These channels will be a key driver for our future growth in next and following periods.

Additionally, in year 2015 we have expanded our R&D department and established a strong design team. Our current design team is able to capture fashion trends and product designs, transforming design concepts into commercially viable products with quality and reasonable cost.

Finally, we just moved in to our new office building and factory in the first quarter of year 2016. Our factory currently has an annual capacity of producing five million articles of clothing, which will allow us to best position the Company for taking advantage of the rising demand for the provision of third party manufacturing services from regional and international customers.

With these advantages, we also expanded our sales department by employing international sales staff. So we expect our revenue to grow in the second half of 2016 and we believe we are on track to deliver profits in excess of $3 million for 2016, excluding the provision of the change in fair value of warrants and our non-recurring fees related to our recent transactions."

If the company makes good on the forecast of $3 million in profits for 2016, that would lead to an EPS of $2.56 per share. The fundamental value of KBSF on both its balance sheet and its income statement implies a stock price of $15-$30 per share. 5 to 10 times higher than where it is now.

The reverse split is a sign that KBSF could spike at any given time 

At the start of this article, we gave several examples of stocks that did reverse splits in excess of 1-for-10 which then spiked several hundred percent days or weeks later. Professional Diversity Network, Inc. (IPDN) is a perfect example that is dear to us. We called IPDN a buy at $0.72 on August 15th with a target of $1.20 (split-adjusted $5.76, target $9.60). For a while people were mad at us calling it a pump and dump because the company announced a 1-for-8 reverse split. Well here is the price history of the stock immediately following the reverse split:

One day after IPDN's split on September 27, the stock price moved from $5.60 to a high of $11.50. IPDN is $9.91 right now, aligned with our original $1.20 target pre-split. We believe that KBSF has the potential to run even harder and just as quickly after this reverse split because its value proposition is so much higher than IPDN. Notice the timing of the financials. Q2 came out on November 7th, three months ago. That means Q3 is due to come out at any time. If KBSF shows good results like the CEO is promising, the move on it could be massive. If you wish to share this report on various social media outlets, keep in mind that '' is often blacklisted. Use other country suffixes like '' or '' if you are having problems posting it. 

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  1. In this article we made a calculation error. $3M/1.77M shares is a $1.69 EPS. Accidentally used 1.17 as the denominator to come up with $2.56. As KBSF still trades under its cash per share, this error doesn't change the value proposition of the company.

  2. I'm following, but when do you send updates? Are they sent to gmail?

  3. Yes, you should get a gmail or Google+ notification. Depends on your settings.