Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Long SRPT and PTCT

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT): $36.13 Target: $50.00
PTC Therapeutics, Inc. (PTCT): $14.71 Target: $25.00

Why we like these stocks:

Both SRPT and PTCT develop drugs for different types of Duchenne muscular dystrophy. Because of their extremely high cost and controversial history with respect to running clinical trials differently from the norm and/or questionable efficacy, these drugs always get some pushback from regulators, insurance companies and other naysayers. The DMD community is very strong in support of any drug that can extend and improve the quality of life of the boys who have this disease. We believe that these two drug companies will continue to successfully market their drugs to the U.S. and/or Europe and any major pullback is a buying opportunity. The back-and-forth between the supporters of DMD treatments and health case regulators and insurers who have doubts cause wild spikes and dips in both stocks. The increased volatility of these two stocks allows for tremendous returns by writing covered calls which also decrease downside risk.

Trading strategy on SRPT: Buy stock at $36.13, sell $42 February 17 covered calls at $2

Buying the stock and selling the covered call results in a net cost of $34.13, which is 6% downside coverage to yesterday's closing price. If the stock is above $42 by February 17, the total return will be 23%, which is very good for a month's return. This is not quite as favorable as buying the stock at $36.13 and waiting to sell at $50.00 for a 38% return, but the risk-return profile over the next month favors the covered call strategy. Even if the options were exercised, there would be a good chance that you could buy the stock for less than $42 once again soon after based on the choppy history of the chart. Should the option expire worthless next month we can revisit this investment while pocketing 6%.

Trading strategy on PTCT: Buy stock at $14.71, sell $19 March 17 covered calls at $2

Buying the stock and selling the covered call results in a net cost of $12.71, which is 14% downside coverage. If the stock is above $19 by March 17, the total return will be 49%. This is not quite as favorable as buying the stock at $14.71 and waiting to sell at $25.00 for a 70% return, but that is unlikely to happen before March and doesn't offer any downside protection. The stock would have to be $21.91 to offer a 49% return at $14.71. Should the option expire worthless in March we can revisit this investment while pocketing 14%.

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